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Huge World Recession Incoming?

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I generally watch a lot of international videos about the world economy and its not looking good. There is a huge amount of videos discussing the huge collapse in the Chinese property and banking sector and the trillions of debt there. The EU continues to add huge debts to many of its economies, the US is in a terrible state with horrific debt levels and generally the world seems to be very unstable at the moment financially.

I couldn't help noticing Warren Buffett's company is sitting on $200 billion of cash reserves which he refuses to spend as its clear he thinks the market is over-valued and heading for a huge collapse. He is primed to pick up many companies at much reduced price when the recession hits and it is clear he is expecting this soon. He has recently off-loaded many of his Apple shares. Economic recessions typically damage premium brand companies more and essential products and services companies less. Everyone needs energy, food etc but they don't need premium products if their money is tight. So Warren seems to be adjusting to the expected world recession.

Many economies like the US, UK and Europe run on a pyramid scheme where they increase their debts with their GDP which to them means the debt level is affordable but of course a world recession collapses GDP and you are still left with the same debt.

Countries were far better dealing with a world recession when there wasn't as much globalisation of the markets, i.e. a smaller percentage of their economies were influenced by the world's overall economy.

I hope what we learn from this recession is globalisation should be avoided and reduced. Countries need to produce products and services mainly for their own economies. Assets should be mainly owned from within the same countries and governments should be working to maintain their own healthy economies without being influenced by other countries. The free movement of people is not realistic or desired not just for environmental reasons but because economic migration causes so many economic problems.

What we also don't know is the scale of this recession that is likely incoming. Recessions often expose financial problems that have been swept under the carpet and now have to be dealt with. The last big recession was due to the US reselling mortgage debt that was never going to be paid. However this new recession probably has half a dozen or more major factors so should be much deeper. However the depth of the incoming recession is made more complicated by the world economy being much more complicated nowadays so predictions about where it will do most damage is more difficult. Of course predicting a world recession is a 100% safe bet, the world economy regularly has a recession its really just the exact timing and the severity of the recession that is debateable.

BonzoBanana
2 weeks ago
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martinlufc5637

And yet we are told the economy is growing, they must think we are stupid , we were told the UK economy wasn't in recession, but Friday we are told the country is out of recession, unfortunately the media is government controlled, and these stories are brushed aside

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BonzoBanana

martinlufc5637 I guess that is the point if GDP is increasing you could see that as the economy growing but at what cost, if its fuelled by borrowing then its not real growth. If I borrow on my credit card so I'm spending more money that doesn't mean I'm richer it means I'm poorer because I have more debt. All that money has to be repaid with interest on top. If as a country we are debt free running a trading surplus and GDP is increasing then fair enough that is real growth.

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telmel

Its amazing how the world has 'developed' over the last 200 years or so

Before that people didn't worry about the economy or debt as they do now

Yes there was poverty , but you didn't have recessions per se or world debt as we have now

We musn't forget, all this is man made and the hysteria is heightened by the rich , they are so frightened of losing their wealth , we are just pawns in their financial world

I am not a financial expert myself, but i do follow the news and see what is happening globally

So if the whole world went bankrupt , we saw a taste of what can happen with the pandemic , so what !!

What would the situation be ?

Would all debt be wiped out in one stroke of the pen ?

Would it really change anything for the commoners ?

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BonzoBanana

telmel I certainly don't blame him for doing it but Warren Buffet is clearly planning to do well out of a world recession. He is clearly looking to make a killing by buying up firms cheap when the recession hits and is keeping his cash reserves high for such acquisitions. He is a rich man who is likely to benefit hugely from a recession once the market recovers after the recession. It's like anyone with huge financial resources. If the housing market collapsed and prices dropped by half and you then bought them at half price and then 4 years later the market had recovered and was at 90% of the original price you have made a huge financial killing. The people who were forced to sell their homes at half their original value of course could be saddled with debt and other problems. They have worked hard to buy their own home only for it to be wiped out and they are back to square one.

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Pjran

BonzoBanana Buy when stocks are low is always a risk but the wealthy can afford to do this.

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BonzoBanana

Pjran Warren Buffet has all sorts of mathematical formulas for analysing companies and seeing if they are good long term bets and if they are undervalued. He probably won't take risks on firms likely to collapse. He has some amazing insights into the overall world economy which is why sadly he is getting ready for a world recession. Of course he could be wrong but it seems unlikely to me and many others based on his track record. However he does get stuff wrong occasionally.

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Pjran

BonzoBanana I bet he made a fortune back in the 1980s when there was a big crash. I’m showing my age referring to that.

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Jerseydrew

UK has just come out of recession. To be honest I don't see how. Everything is going upwards price wise. We've had a wet winter so can see price going up for food. The world can't last like this

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BonzoBanana

Jerseydrew All it means is people are spending a little more money than before so there is some growth. It could so easily go back the other way. The government is still borrowing heavily which is an indicator of a country in economic distress. I've got about £150k of debt on my head like everyone else, government debt, pension shortfalls etc. It's a crippling amount of debt for the economy having to service. That's why a recession will be so crippling for the UK as we have no financial reserves instead we are heavily indebted. Which is why we will probably need a IMF bailout at some point. The UK faces much greater poverty to come sadly.

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